Last week I went 9-7 and again hit on my lock of the week (Baltimore) and survivor pick (Washington). I'm 17-15 on the season...
Sunday, Sep 27, 2009
1:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) -4.5 at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) This Bengals team is better than most though and at home I like them to keep pace with a Steelers team that has a poor run game. Leon Hall will be a big factor in this game.
1:00 PM Washington Redskins (1-1) -6.5 at Detroit Lions (0-2) I said in the pre-season that the Redskins offense was terrible and through two games they have one offensive touchdown. This week the Lions defense won't have to great for this game to be close. The Lions could win this one... I'm taking most 0-2 teams to cover as they're all desperate for wins.
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers (1-1) -6.5 at St. Louis Rams (0-2) This Packers offensive line is going to get Aaron Rodgers hurt. Where is the great team we saw in the preseason?
1:00 PM at Minnesota Vikings (2-0) -7.5 San Francisco 49ers (2-0) The Vikings will slow Gore and the 49ers will have to pass the ball and that's where they'll lose the game. The Vikings are also playing at home on that turf.
1:00 PM at New England Patriots (1-1) -4.5 Atlanta Falcons (2-0) This Falcons team is good on offense and the Brady just doesn't look right.
1:00 PM at New York Jets (2-0) -2.5 Tennessee Titans (0-2) The Titans have to have this game and they know it. The Jets are looking nasty on defense, but what can their offense really do?
1:00 PM at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) -9.5 Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) Kolb looked much better than I thought he would, but 9.5 points is alot. The Chiefs are bad, but if the Eagles don't have Westbrook and DeSean Jackson, they could keep this somewhat close.
1:00 PM New York Giants (2-0) -7.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) The Giants are a good, potentially great team with their WRs emerging. I'm taking the Bucs at home because they need a win, bad.
1:00 PM at Baltimore Ravens (2-0) -13.5 Cleveland Browns (0-2) This is a huge line, as it should be, but the Browns can't afford to go 0-3 right? Right?
1:00 PM at Houston Texans (1-1) -3.5 Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) This line should be more like 6 or higher. This Jags offense is predictable and this Texans team owns the Jags. Come on Texans! *Lock of the week
4:05 PM Chicago Bears (1-1) -2.5 at Seattle Seahawks (1-1) Seneca Wallace can't beat the Bears, right?
4:05 PM New Orleans Saints (2-0) -5.5 at Buffalo Bills (1-1) This Bills team could hang with the Saints for a while, but can they score 35 points? Doubtful.
4:15 PM at Oakland Raiders (1-1) -1.5 Denver Broncos (2-0) JaMarcus, don't fail me now.
4:15 PM at San Diego Chargers (1-1) -5.5 Miami Dolphins (0-2) When will the Chargers wake up? They're losing guys left and right, but the Dolphins can't score when it matters. Still, the Chargers won't take this game seriously.
8:20 PM at Arizona Cardinals (1-1) -1.5 Indianapolis Colts (2-0) I'm going with the Cards because they're hot and hopefully they've learned that you must stop Dallas Clark.
Monday, Sep 28, 2009
8:30 PM at Dallas Cowboys (1-1) -9.5 Carolina Panthers (0-2) Has anyone ever thought that maybe Delhomme isn't this bad, he just has no one other than Steve Smith to throw to? I expect Dallas to win, but their defense has 0 sacks and 0 ints through 2 games. Run the ball Panthers... run the damn ball.
Last week I went 8-8 overall, but hit on my lock of the week (Tenn) and my survivor (Baltimore).
Sunday, Sep 20, 2009
1:00 PM at Atlanta Falcons (1-0) -6.5 Carolina Panthers (0-1) The public is over reacting to Delhomme... once they get back to running the ball, they will be fine. This was a great Panthers team last year.
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings (1-0) -9.5 at Detroit Lions (0-1) This is a big line, but the Vikings have a great defense and AP.
1:00 PM at Green Bay Packers (1-0) -9.5 Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) These teams are much closer than this... they could both be 1-0 or 0-1. Their records are affecting this line more than anything.
1:00 PM at Tennessee Titans (0-1) -7.5 Houston Texans (0-1) What the hell was that Texans? They got punched in the mouth by the Jets defense and never recovered, what will they do vs a Titans team that barely lost to Pittsburgh last week?
1:00 PM at Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) -3.5 Oakland Raiders (0-1) Who was that Raiders team we saw Monday night? They looked physical and ready to play. After what Baltimore's run game did to KC, I expect more of the same from Oakland.
1:00 PM New England Patriots (1-0) -5.5 at New York Jets (1-0) Stop with all the talk that this Jets defense is top 3. If they can prove it versus this Patriots team, then I'll start drinking the Koolaid, till then, I'm backing the Pats.
1:00 PM at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) -1.5 New Orleans Saints (1-0) We learned nothing about either team last week as they both did what was expected of them. Kolb's presence in this game scares me... alot.
1:00 PM at Washington Redskins (0-1) -10.5 St. Louis Rams (0-1) They could make this line 20 and I still might take the Redskins. They're at home versus the worst team in the NFL.
1:00 PM at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) -3.5 Arizona Cardinals (0-1) This is the toughest game for me to pick. I'm going with the Jags because they are at home and west coast teams do poorly in early games on the east coast.
4:05 PM at San Francisco 49ers (1-0) -1.5 Seattle Seahawks (1-0) This is a frisky 49ers team, but I like the Seahawks experience.
4:05 PM at Buffalo Bills (0-1) -4.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) Extremely tough to pick... going with Bills because I think their WRs can exploit TB like Dallas did and TB has no passing game.
4:15 PM Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) -2.5 at Chicago Bears (0-1) Jay Cutler will face a similar 3-4 defense, but will the results be any different?
4:15 PM at Denver Broncos (1-0) -3.5 Cleveland Browns (0-1) I trust Eric Mangini about as far as I can throw him... Will Quinn ever throw deep?
4:15 PM at San Diego Chargers (1-0) -4.5 Baltimore Ravens (1-0) The Ravens can do everything the Raiders did on MNF, but 100 times better. *Lock of the week
8:20 PM at Dallas Cowboys (1-0) -2.5 New York Giants (1-0) This line makes no sense.. it should be Giants by 1.5. I love the Giants' offensive and defensive lines. This Cowboys team has a mediocre head coach and no leader at QB.
Monday, Sep 21, 2009
8:30 PM Indianapolis Colts (1-0) -3.5 at Miami Dolphins (0-1) I don't like this pick, but I love the Colts' pass defense vs Pennington....oh and the Wildcat is dead to me.
AFC East - Patriots and everyone else 1. New England Patriots - The best coach in the NFL + the best QB in the NFL = Super Bowl? Oh yeah, they also have that Raaaaaaandy Moss. Vegas: Over 11.5 Wins 2. Miami Dolphins - Tougher schedule, league ready for Wildcat, and still no #1 WR... Parcells know how to get the right men for the job though. Vegas: Push 7 Wins 3. NY Jets - Rookie coach, rookie QB, and aging Thomas Jones... defense should be top 10. Vegas: Under 7.5 Wins 4. Buffalo Bills - Horrible offensive line, Lynch suspended, Edwards erratic, oh and TO there to stir the pot... could challenge for worst team in the league. Vegas: Under 7.5 Wins
AFC North - They'll punch you in the mouth and then post it on Twitter 1. Pittsburgh Steelers - Defending champs, proven QB, awesome defense... repeat? Vegas: Over 10.5 Wins 2. Baltimore Ravens - Defense could actually be better, but lost Rex Ryan to Jets, and offense still just there not to mess things up... still a team to fear. Vegas: Over 8.5 Wins 3. Cincinnati Bengals - My man Ochocinco, healthy Carson Palmer, Marvin Lewis coaching for his job, but still have no real running game... Who Dey? Possible wild card team, that's who. Vegas: Push 7 Wins 4. Cleveland Browns - Quinn? Anderson? Who cares? Jamal Lewis on last leg and Mangini is a one-hit wonder... Braylon Edwards is too talented not to bounce back, but this team needs lots of help. Vegas: Under 6.5 Wins
AFC South - Toughest division in entire league 1. Houston Texans - Why not? Great offense and special teams, but defense and health of Schaub will determine how far they go... Must get off to fast start. Vegas: Over 8.5 Wins 2. Indianapolis Colts - Still have Peyton Manning, but new head coach and offensive coordinator. Defense still weak against the run and special teams is especially poor. Vegas: Under 10 Wins 3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Everything went wrong last year, but improved offensive line, WR core, and MJD back to lead the way... primed for a bounce-back year. Vegas: Push 8 Wins 4. Tennessee Titans - Last year was almost perfect, but lost Albert Haynesworth and defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz... still relying on Kerry Collins. One hit from turning to Hall of Famer Vince Young... yikes! Vegas: Under 9 Wins AFC West - Chargers and everyone else 1. San Diego Chargers - Simply the class of the division... would take injury to Rivers to not win division. Vegas: Over 10 Wins 2. Denver Broncos - Good offensive line, WR core (despite Marshall's tantrums), Moreno there to balance offense, Orton clearly not Cutler, but can still move offense... Too much, too soon for rookie head coach? Vegas: Push 6 Wins 3. Kansas City Chiefs - New GM, head coach, QB... still has to be better than anything the Raiders do, right? Vegas: Push 6 Wins 4. Oakland Raiders - A total mess. Vegas: Under 6 Wins
AFC Playoff Picture 1. New England Patriots 2. Pittsburgh Steelers 3. San Diego Chargers 4. Houston Texans 5. Baltimore Ravens 6. Indianpolis Colts
NFC East - Remind why Dallas is in the East again... 1. NY Giants - Where is the game won? The trenches. Where are the Giants the best? The trenches... If WRs can step up, potential Super Bowl team. Vegas: Over 9.5 Wins 2. Philadelphia Eagles - Despite additions of Vick, Maclin, and McCoy, defense just won't be the same without Jim Johnson... still really good. Vegas: Under 9.5 wins 3. Dallas Cowboys - Romo lacks consistency and isn't a leader, no true #1 WR, head coach lacks discipline, but really good running game... they'll find a way to screw things up, they always do. Vegas: Under 9 Wins 4. Washington Redskins - How many ways do I hate their offense? Let's see... Aging running backs, poor WRs, holes in offensive line, and QB has yet to put it all together. Their defense should be stout... first team to fire their head coach, not because he's a bad coach, but because of expectations and division. Vegas: Under 8 Wins NFC North - Is Favre dead yet? 1. Green Bay Packers - Explosive offense that just needs the defense to pull it's own weight... new 3-4 defense could be the answer. Possible Super Bowl contender? Vegas: Over 9 Wins 2. Minnesota Vikings - Awesome run game and run defense, but Favre is subtraction by addition... get prepared to see Rosenfaileds and Tavaris Jackson... Percy Harvin offensive rookie of the year? Vegas: Under 9.5 Wins 3. Chicago Bears - Cutler! Yeah, Cutler is here! Did I mention Cutler?! If anything should happen to Forte, offense is totally screwed. Not sure they have 1 NFL caliber WR. Defense needs to improve if it's going to carry the team. Yeah, Cutler! Whooooo Cutler! Vegas: Over 7 Wins 4. Detroit Lions - It can't get any worse right? Stafford thrown to the wolves, but really anything he does will be praised in comparison to '08. Should sneak up on teams as opponents won't take them seriously. Vegas: Over 4.5 Wins
NFC South - Where 1st place is a revolving door 1. New Orleans Saints - Offense, offense, and more offense. If defense can stop anyone, should be able to win many more games... will go as far as defense and new coordinator Gregg Williams take them. Vegas: Push 9 Wins 2. Carolina Panthers - Power running game, but playoff hangover? I don't trust Delhomme and neither should the Panthers... defense could be major liability. Vegas: Under 8.5 Wins 3. Atlanta Falcons - Regression to mean on all levels. Schedule not the cake it was last year, Turner faces curse of 370, and defense will really have to prove itself this season... sophomore slump. Vegas: Under 8.5 Wins 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Good running game, but turnover everywhere from front office to players... Antonio Bryant is the best WR. Could be a very long season. Vegas: Under 6.5 Wins
NFC West - The Cardinals won this last year at 9-7... 9-7! 1. Seattle Seahawks - Hasselbeck is back! Running game is weak, but Jim Mora Jr. should bring new life to a team that was hurt last year... Houshmazilly! Vegas: Over 8 Wins 2. Arizona Cardinals - Super Bowl hangover and a fluke run at that. Warner is one good hit from retirement, but Leinart should be ready. Only went 9-7 last year and now have lost their offensive coordinator... Don't let the Super Bowl fool you, this is an ordinary team when all the parts are added up. Vegas: Under 8.5 Wins 3. San Francisco 49ers - Mike Singletary is just what the doctor ordered. Frank Gore should carry the offense, but how good is Shaun Hill? Will be a better team than most think, but limited by talent on roster. Vegas: Under 7 Wins 4. St. Louis Rams - New head coach, no WR depth, inconsistent QB play... a year to forget. Spagnuolo will have this team turned around, it'll just take time. Vegas: Under 5.5 Wins
NFC Playoff Picture 1. NY Giants 2. Green Bay Packers 3. Seattle Seahawks 4. New Orleans Saints 5. Philadelphia Eagles 6. Minnesota Vikings
Playoffs
AFC Divisional Baltimore Ravens v New England Patriots San Diego Chargers v Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC Divisional New Orleans Saints v NY Giants Seattle Seahawks v Green Bay Packers
AFC Conference San Diego Chargers v New England Patriots
NFC Conference NY Giants v Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl Green Bay Packers v New England Patriots (+2500 in Vegas for this match-up)
Super Bowl Winner: New England Patriots
Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy, Green Bay
MVP: Aaron Rodgers (+2800 in Vegas)
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Defensive Player of the Year: Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aaron Curry, Seattle Seahawks
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